Carbon Neutrality Assessment System Takes Effect, Chemical Industry Supply Side Faces New Shakeup

Carbon Neutrality Assessment Officially Implemented, Policy Intensity Escalates

According to 36Kr, the latest research report from CITIC Securities indicates that the "Comprehensive Evaluation and Assessment Measures for Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality" has been officially implemented, ushering in a new round of policy catalysts for the chemical industry's supply side. The release of this landmark document signals that the "dual-carbon" strategy has formally transitioned from the planning stage to a rigid enforcement phase.

Assessment Mechanism Defined: Integrated Into Leadership Performance Evaluations

Under the assessment measures, starting from 2026, the central government will conduct comprehensive carbon peaking and carbon neutrality evaluations of provincial (autonomous regions, municipalities) party committees and governments. The assessment framework establishes two major categories of indicators:

• Control Indicators: Focused on core data such as total carbon emissions and emission intensity, providing quantitative assessments of local carbon reduction performance.
• Supporting Indicators: Covering multi-dimensional factors including industrial restructuring, energy transition, and technological innovation.

Notably, assessment results will serve as key references for the comprehensive evaluation, selection, appointment, and oversight of provincial leadership teams and relevant officials. This institutional design directly links dual-carbon targets to cadre performance reviews, significantly strengthening expected policy enforcement.

Chemical Industry Bears the Brunt: Rising Costs and Accelerated Capacity Elimination

The CITIC Securities research report argues that the dual-carbon strategy entering its enforcement phase will have three profound impacts on the typically energy-intensive chemical industry:

First, it will raise industry costs. Stricter carbon emission assessments will drive tighter carbon allowances, continuously pushing up energy costs and environmental compliance costs for chemical enterprises. Particularly as the carbon trading market gradually expands, high-emission companies will face greater operational pressure.

Second, it will accelerate the elimination of outdated capacity. As local governments face rigid assessment pressure, outdated chemical production capacity with high energy consumption and high emissions will be phased out at an accelerated pace. Small and medium-sized chemical enterprises with outdated technology may face closure, merger, or conversion, further increasing industry concentration.

Third, it will accelerate industrial upgrading. The assessment mechanism will compel chemical enterprises to increase investment in green technology R&D, driving production processes toward low-carbon and intelligent transformation. In this process, AI-driven smart manufacturing, digital carbon management platforms, and novel catalytic technologies are expected to gain broader application.

Investment Perspective: Industry Leaders May Benefit

From an investment standpoint, supply-side contraction typically brings marginal improvement in industry fundamentals. Leading chemical companies with scale advantages, technological leadership, and carbon emission management capabilities will not only absorb the pressure of rising costs but are also positioned to capture greater market share and pricing power after outdated capacity is eliminated.

Outlook: The First Year of Dual-Carbon Enforcement Approaches

With 2026 marking the official launch year for carbon neutrality assessments, local governments are expected to intensify preparations throughout 2025. It is foreseeable that environmental policies for the chemical industry will continue to tighten in the near term, with structural adjustments on the supply side becoming a core market theme. Meanwhile, the application of AI technology in carbon emission monitoring, energy efficiency optimization, and green chemical R&D will also see new development opportunities.