OpenAI Expects Users to Migrate En Masse to Lower-Priced Plans

Ad-Supported Plan Poised to Reshape ChatGPT's Commercial Landscape

On April 28, foreign media reported that OpenAI is planning a major strategic shift for its ChatGPT product line — the launch of a cheaper, ad-supported subscription tier. Internal projections indicate the move will not only attract a massive influx of new users but also prompt tens of millions of existing paid subscribers to voluntarily downgrade, fundamentally altering the company's revenue structure and user distribution.

Total Users to Double While Plus Subscriptions Plunge 80%

According to disclosed internal forecasts, OpenAI expects its total consumer subscription base to more than double this year, climbing from current levels to 122 million, with plans to grow further to 306 million by 2030. Behind this growth, however, lies a dramatic structural shift.

ChatGPT Plus — the flagship monthly plan and currently the company's core revenue source — is projected to see its subscriber count drop by 80% this year, shrinking to approximately 9 million. This means the vast majority of existing Plus users will opt to "downgrade" to the cheaper ad-supported tier. Meanwhile, the highest-priced Pro plan is expected to see its user base double, though it will still account for less than 1% of total users, remaining an extremely niche premium segment.

The Strategic Logic of Trading Price for Volume

The business rationale behind OpenAI's move is straightforward. ChatGPT Plus currently costs $20 per month — a price threshold that locks out a large pool of potential users. By introducing a lower-cost ad-supported plan, OpenAI aims to trade lower per-user revenue for user base growth measured in multiples or even tens of multiples.

The data suggests OpenAI has already braced for a sharp short-term decline in flagship plan revenue. A drop in Plus users from roughly 45 million to 9 million would mean losing hundreds of millions of dollars in monthly subscription income from that tier alone. But if the vast majority of 122 million total users are on the ad-supported plan, the combination of advertising revenue and low-priced subscription fees could potentially offset or even surpass previous revenue levels.

This strategy is consistent with a classic internet industry playbook. From YouTube to Spotify, free or low-cost ad-supported tiers have proven effective at expanding user bases, while premium ad-free plans serve core users with a strong willingness to pay. OpenAI is transforming ChatGPT from a pure subscription product into a multi-tiered, diversified commercial platform.

Pro Plan's Counter-Trend Growth Sends a Signal

Notably, even as Plus users migrate away in droves, the highest-end Pro plan is expected to double its user base. This points to a clear user bifurcation emerging in the AI space: casual users are highly price-sensitive and willing to watch ads in exchange for low-cost access, while power users and professionals are willing to pay a premium for more powerful model capabilities and higher usage limits.

This "barbell-shaped" user structure may become the prevailing pattern across the AI application industry.

Outlook: AI Applications Enter the Mass-Market Competition Phase

If OpenAI's projections hold true, a subscriber base exceeding 300 million by 2030 would place ChatGPT among the world's top-tier consumer internet products. But it also means competition in the AI assistant market will shift from a "technology race" to a "price war" and "user experience war."

Tech giants including Google, Meta, and Apple are already embedding AI capabilities for free within their own ecosystems. OpenAI's decision to introduce an advertising model at this juncture is both a proactive move to expand its user pool and a bid to build scale advantages ahead of intensifying market competition. Striking the right balance between advertising experience and product quality will be a critical challenge for OpenAI in its next phase.