Reusable Rocket Tests Intensify as Commercial Spaceflight Enters Mass Production Era

Introduction: Intensive Verification Window Opens, Commercial Spaceflight Reaches a New Starting Point

In late April 2025, China's commercial space sector reached a milestone moment. Multiple reusable rockets, including the Long March 10B and Zhuque-3, carried out recovery technology verification tests in rapid succession, signaling that China has entered an intensive sprint phase in reusable rocket engineering. Simultaneously, the national Commercial Spaceflight Standards Framework (Version 1.0) was officially released, providing a top-level institutional framework for the industry. Driven by the twin engines of technological breakthroughs and policy support, the commercial space supply chain is rapidly transitioning from the technology verification period into the inaugural year of large-scale mass production.

Core Events: Multiple Rocket Models Advance as Recovery Technology Enters Deep Engineering Waters

Reusable rockets are widely regarded as the ultimate solution for dramatically reducing the cost of access to space. Previously, SpaceX leveraged the successful reuse of its Falcon 9 to compress per-launch costs to a fraction of those of traditional rockets, fundamentally reshaping the competitive landscape of global commercial spaceflight. Now, Chinese commercial space companies are accelerating their pursuit.

During this intensive verification window, several key models have drawn attention:

• Long March 10B: As the new-generation launch vehicle developed by the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC), the Long March 10B carries the dual mission of crewed lunar landing and reusable technology. The advancement of its first-stage vertical recovery tests marks a critical step for the "national team" on the reusable technology pathway.
• Zhuque-3: Developed by LandSpace, Zhuque-3 is the flagship reusable rocket among China's private commercial space companies. Having already completed multiple vertical takeoff and landing tests, this round of verification further advances its transition from the test site to the launch pad.
• Other Models in Development: Multiple private enterprises, including iSpace and Tianbing Technology, are also simultaneously advancing their own reusable rocket programs, creating a vibrant and competitive landscape across the industry.

Industry insiders note that the core technical challenges of reusable rockets are concentrated in areas such as multiple engine relights, precise grid fin control, landing leg shock absorption systems, and vehicle thermal protection. The simultaneous verification of multiple rocket models indicates that China has accumulated relatively mature engineering experience in these critical technology areas, drawing ever closer to the "last mile" before commercial operations.

Policy Support: Standards Framework Implemented, Giving the Industry Rules to Follow

The intensive push in technology verification would not be possible without strong policy-level support. The official release of the national Commercial Spaceflight Standards Framework (Version 1.0) is seen as another important milestone for the industry.

This standards framework systematically regulates the entire lifecycle of commercial rockets — from design, manufacturing, and testing to launch and recovery — at the top-level planning level. Analysts believe the establishment of this standards framework will have at least three far-reaching impacts:

1. Reducing Uncertainty in Industry Entry: Previously, commercial space companies lacked unified standards for reference during R&D and operations, resulting in significant differences in technology pathways and quality control systems across companies. The release of the standards framework provides a "common language" for the entire industry, helping to lower barriers to cooperation and regulatory costs.
2. Accelerating Supply Chain Integration and Domestic Substitution: Unified standards will drive the standardization and modularization of components, raw materials, and testing equipment, fostering specialized supplier ecosystems and promoting cost reduction through upstream-downstream coordination.
3. Strengthening Capital Market Confidence: Standardization signals increased industry maturity, helping attract more private capital and creating a positive cycle of "technological progress — cost reduction — market expansion — capital investment."

Capital Market Response: Earnings Delivery Meets Rising Momentum

The resonance between policy and technology has already begun to manifest in capital markets. According to Wind data, the Wind Commercial Spaceflight Concept Index has risen 6.51% cumulatively since April 7, significantly outperforming the broader market.

More notably, A-share companies across the commercial space supply chain reported markedly improved first-quarter results. Multiple listed companies involved in rocket manufacturing, satellite components, ground equipment, and advanced materials achieved high revenue and net profit growth rates, with some seeing order volumes increase by more than 50% year-over-year. This indicates that commercial spaceflight has moved beyond mere concept speculation and is entering a substantive earnings delivery phase.

From a supply chain segmentation perspective, the market is closely watching the following areas:

• Rocket Manufacturing and Final Assembly: While the maturation of reusable technology will significantly increase rocket reuse rates, it also places higher demands on engine lifespan and vehicle structural integrity, positioning core component suppliers to benefit.
• Satellite Manufacturing and Batch Production: Declining launch costs will directly stimulate demand for satellite constellation deployment, particularly accelerating the construction of low Earth orbit (LEO) communication satellite constellations. The value of satellite batch manufacturing production lines will be reassessed.
• Ground Equipment and Telemetry, Tracking & Command (TT&C): As launch frequency increases, demand for ground tracking stations, data processing centers, and launch site supporting facilities will grow in tandem.
• Advanced Materials and Components: The domestic substitution of critical materials and components — including high-temperature alloys, carbon fiber composites, and aerospace-grade chips — is expected to accelerate.

In-Depth Analysis: The Cost Revolution Will Reshape the Industrial Ecosystem

The disruptive impact of reusable rockets on the commercial space industry centers on a "cost revolution."

Using SpaceX as a benchmark, the Falcon 9's first-stage reuse has reduced per-kilogram payload-to-orbit costs from tens of thousands of dollars with traditional rockets to approximately $2,700. Starship aims to compress this figure further to the hundreds-of-dollars range. Analysts point out that once Chinese reusable rockets achieve operational engineering status, launch costs could decline exponentially, fundamentally altering the business logic of the space industry.

Specifically, cost reduction will drive industrial transformation on three levels:

First, launch services will shift from a seller's market to a buyer's market. The current global commercial launch market suffers from supply shortages, long queuing periods, and persistently high prices. Once reusable technology matures, launch capacity will be substantially unlocked, giving downstream customers greater choice in pricing and launch windows, and compelling launch service providers to improve efficiency and service quality.

Second, large-scale application scenarios such as satellite internet will accelerate. Whether LEO broadband constellations, remote sensing constellations, or navigation augmentation systems, their business models all depend on low-cost, high-frequency launch capabilities. The large-scale deployment of reusable rockets will clear the biggest obstacle to building this "space infrastructure."

Third, the boundaries of the space economy will be significantly expanded. When the cost of accessing space falls below a certain threshold, application scenarios previously considered far-fetched — such as space tourism, in-orbit manufacturing, and space resource exploitation — could enter the stage of commercial feasibility assessment.

Outlook: The Inaugural Year of Mass Production and a Timely Reassessment of Supply Chain Value

Overall, 2025 is poised to become the inaugural year of large-scale mass production for China's commercial space supply chain. This assessment rests on three core pillars:

First, technological maturity has crossed a critical threshold. The successful intensive verification of multiple reusable rocket models means that core technology reserves are ready for engineering application, with rapid iteration and commercial operations to follow.

Second, the policy and standards framework has formed a closed loop. From top-level planning to technical standards, from launch permits to frequency coordination, the institutional environment for commercial spaceflight is increasingly comprehensive, providing a solid institutional foundation for industrial scaling.

Third, supply chain earnings have begun to materialize substantively. First-quarter financial data shows that commercial spaceflight has progressed from the "storytelling" phase to the "delivering results" phase, and the capital market's pricing logic for the supply chain is shifting from "thematic investment" to "fundamentals-driven."

Of course, the industry still faces certain challenges, including the need for continued refinement of reusable rocket reliability and further cost optimization across the value chain.